Nat Commun2026Article

通过水鸟活动熵绘制全球禽流感风险模式图谱

Mapping global avian influenza risk patterns through waterbird activity entropy

Yuzhe Li · Yuxin Qiao · Yue Zhan · Jinwei Dong · Mariëlle van Toor · Jonas Waldenström · A. Townsend Peterson · Qiang Zhang · Zhichao Li · Weipan Lei · Fanshu Du · Juan Pu · Dayan Wang · Xiangming Xiao

1. 信息

DOI10.1038/s41467-026-70432-0

期刊Nature Communications / Nat Commun

类型Article

发表2026-03-07 （online）

卷期页17(1): 3606

收录2026-10-04

被浏览…

关键词avian influenza waterbirds H5N1 zoonotic transmission exposure hotspots risk assessment surveillance gaps poultry cattle sub-Saharan Africa

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2. 摘要

禽流感病毒（AIV）是具有大流行潜力的重大人畜共患性威胁。水禽通过接触和病毒重组，促进禽流感病毒溢出到家畜和人类。本文提出水禽活动熵（WAE），该指标基于全球779种水禽的月度分布数据，用于衡量水禽的活动强度。WAE对全球禽流感病例，尤其是H5N1禽流感病例，展现出较高的解释力（AUC = 0.87 ± 0.001），表明 WAE 具有识别禽流感病毒暴露热点的潜力，这些热点覆盖了全球14%的陆地面积。值得注意的是，美国、欧盟、中国和印度的禽流感病毒暴露热点地区集中了全球52%的受感染人群、41%的牛和51%的家禽。尽管撒哈拉以南非洲报告的病例不足全球的1%，但其热点地区面积超过3亿公顷（占全球的 15%），凸显了该地区监测工作的巨大缺口。该基于WAE的框架通过纳入水鸟的停留时间来增强AIV风险评估，为预测AIV的出现和改进监测提供了关键见解。

原文摘要（English）

Avian influenza viruses (AIV) pose a major zoonotic threat with pandemic potential. Waterbirds facilitate AIV spillovers into farm animals and humans through exposure and virus reassortment. Here, we propose waterbird activity entropy (WAE), an indicator of waterbird activity intensity based on monthly distributions of 779 species worldwide. WAE demonstrated high explanative power (AUC = 0.87 ± 0.001) for global avian influenza cases, particularly for H5N1, revealing the potential of WAE for identifying AIV exposure hotspots which cover 14% of global land area. Notably, the AIV exposure hotspots in the USA, EU, China, and India contain 52% of the globally exposed human population, 41% cattle, and 51% poultry. Despite reporting <1% of global cases, sub-Saharan Africa contains >300 Mha of hotspots area (15% globally), highlighting considerable surveillance gaps. This WAE-based framework enhances AIV risk assessment by incorporating waterbird residency time, offering critical insights for anticipating AIV emergence and improving surveillance.

3. 图表

4. 引用

Li Y, Qiao Y, Zhan Y, et al. Mapping global avian influenza risk patterns through waterbird activity entropy[J]. Nature Communications, 2026, 17(1): 3606. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-70432-0.

查看 BibTeX

@article{li2026,
  author = {Yuzhe Li and Yuxin Qiao and Yue Zhan and Jinwei Dong and Mariëlle van Toor and Jonas Waldenström and A. Townsend Peterson and Qiang Zhang and Zhichao Li and Weipan Lei and Fanshu Du and Juan Pu and Dayan Wang and Xiangming Xiao},
  title = {Mapping global avian influenza risk patterns through waterbird activity entropy},
  journal = {Nature Communications},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {17},
  number = {1},
  pages = {3606},
  doi = {10.1038/s41467-026-70432-0},
  publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC},
}

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