气候变化情景对生物多样性研究的政策意义

1. 信息

2. 摘要

Biodiversity researchers usually use projections from climate models to assess future risks associated with changes in the distribution of species and the composition of ecological communities. However, selecting the scenarios underlying these projections without a detailed understanding of their inherent assumptions carries risks. In this Perspective, we examine what climate-change scenarios are, what parts of these scenarios are useful for biodiversity research, which scenarios map most closely onto policy agendas, and how biodiversity researchers can make the best use of projections of future climate generated from these scenarios. Closer inspection of climate-change scenarios reveals hidden complexity that can confound even specialists and spark debate about their plausibility, but with careful caveats, biodiversity researchers can rely on the climate projections produced from these scenarios. Scenarios based on technological interventions designed to actively cool the climate are of increasing interest to policymakers owing to society’s ongoing failure to act decisively on emissions reduction. Projected responses of biodiversity to climate change will be most valuable to society when they address plausible futures targeted by policymakers. We aim to facilitate this goal with accessible discussions and pragmatic recommendations that are targeted specifically at the biodiversity research community. Understanding climate-change scenarios is essential for researchers seeking to assess the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. In this Perspective, Schoeman et al. examine climate-change scenarios, their use for biodiversity research, and their relevance to policy, as well as providing recommendations for how biodiversity researchers can make the best use of future climate projections.

3. 图表

4. 引用

@article{schoeman2026,
  author = {David S. Schoeman and Andreas Schwarz Meyer and Elvira Poloczanska and Hans-Otto Pörtner and Andrew Lenton and Jason D. Everett and Christopher H. Trisos and Anthony J. Richardson},
  title = {The policy relevance of climate-change scenarios for biodiversity research},
  journal = {Nature Reviews Biodiversity},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1038/s44358-026-00193-7},
  publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC},
}