Halting predicted vertebrate declines requires tackling multiple drivers of biodiversity loss
Pol Capdevila · Duncan O’Brien · Valentina Marconi · Thomas F. Johnson · Robin Freeman · Louise McRae · Christopher F. Clements
期刊Science Advances / Sci. Adv.
类型Article
发表2026-02-13
卷期页12(7): eadx7973
收录2026-10-04
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关键词biodiversity losshabitat lossexploitationdiseaseinvasive speciespollutionclimate changecounterfactual analysisconservation policypopulation time series
标签—
旨在遏制生物多样性丧失的保护政策通常侧重于栖息地丧失和过度开发等全球普遍存在的威胁,然而多种威胁的直接和交互作用仍缺乏量化研究。本文超越了以往的荟萃分析或物种层面的研究,通过对全球3129个脊椎动物种群时间序列(这些种群均有记录,且暴露于单一或多种威胁)进行分析,提供了全球种群层面的威胁交互作用实证研究。结果表明,仅受栖息地丧失或过度开发影响的种群并非下降幅度最大的;相反,疾病、入侵物种、污染和气候变化与种群数量的快速下降相关。交互作用对种群数量下降的贡献大于时间或空间变化。反事实分析表明,缓解多种威胁对于实现脊椎动物种群数量的正增长趋势和遏制生物多样性丧失至关重要。
Conservation policies aiming to halt biodiversity loss often focus on globally prevalent threats like habitat loss and exploitation, yet direct and interactive effects of multiple threats remain poorly quantified. Here, we go beyond prior meta-analyses or species-level studies by providing a global, population-level empirical analysis of threat interactions by examining 3129 vertebrate population time series worldwide with documented exposure to single and multiple threats. Populations affected solely by habitat loss or exploitation do not exhibit the steepest declines; instead, disease, invasive species, pollution, and climate change are associated with faster declines. Interactive threats contribute more to population declines than temporal or spatial variation. Counterfactual analyses reveal that mitigating multiple threats is essential to achieving nonnegative vertebrate population trends and halting biodiversity loss.
@article{capdevila2026,
author = {Pol Capdevila and Duncan O’Brien and Valentina Marconi and Thomas F. Johnson and Robin Freeman and Louise McRae and Christopher F. Clements},
title = {Halting predicted vertebrate declines requires tackling multiple drivers of biodiversity loss},
journal = {Science Advances},
year = {2026},
volume = {12},
number = {7},
pages = {eadx7973},
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.adx7973},
publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)},
}· END ·