Nat Commun2026Article

物候变化介导全球脊椎动物种群对温度的反应

Changes in phenology mediate vertebrate population responses to temperature globally

Viktoriia Radchuk · Carys V. Jones · Nina McLean · Anne Charmantier · Céline Teplitsky · Ray Alisauskas · Sergio Ancona · Tycho Anker-Nilssen · Peter Arcese · Debora Arlt · Lise M. Aubry · Liam Bailey · Christophe Barbraud · Karl S. Berg · Dominique Berteaux · Daniel T. Blumstein · Sandra Bouwhuis · Ulrich Brose · Lyanne Brouwer · Paulo Catry · Guillaume Chero · Andre Chiaradia · Alexandre Courtiol · Francis Daunt · Karine Delord · F. Stephen Dobson · Hugh Drummond · Tapio Eeva · Dominique Fauteux · Gilles Gauthier · Meritxell Genovart · José P. Granadeiro · Jonas Hentati-Sundberg · Michael Harris · José Manuel Igual · Fredric Janzen · Katharine Keogan · Erkki Korpimäki · Stephanie Kramer-Schadt · Loeske E. B. Kruuk · Sue Lewis · Mark Mallory · Julien Martin · Manuel Massot · Erik Matthysen · Jean-Baptiste Mihoub · Anders Pape Møller · Chloé R. Nater · Mark Newell · Steffen Oppel · Daniel Oro · Santiago Ortega · Deseada Parejo · Tomas Pärt · Ana Payo-Payo · Josephine Pemberton · Richard A. Phillips · Neville Pillay · Jesús M. Avilés · Heiko G. Rödel · Ana Sanz-Aguilar · Claire Saraux · Holger Schielzeth · Carsten Schradin · Julia Schroeder · Ben C. Sheldon · Giacomo Tavecchia · Corey E. Tarwater · Vebjørn Veiberg · Vincent A. Viblanc · Dietrich von Holst · Stefan J. G. Vriend · Sarah Wanless · Nathaniel Wheelwright · Andrew G. Wood · Bernt-Erik Sæther · Stephanie Jenouvrier · Jean Clobert · Steven R. Beissinger · Marcel E. Visser · Thomas E. Reed · Martijn van de Pol

1. 信息

DOI10.1038/s41467-025-68172-8

期刊Nature Communications / Nat Commun

类型Article

发表2026-01-12 （online）

卷期页17(1): 479

收录2026-10-03

被浏览…

关键词phenology global warming population growth phenotypic plasticity latitude effects morphological characters climate change migratory species generation time

标签—

2. 摘要

对气候的表型反应影响个体适应度，但这对种群动态的影响程度仍不十分明了。我们收集了213个关于野生脊椎动物表型和种群规模的时间序列，并将其与当地气候数据进行匹配。我们的荟萃分析显示，形态特征大多对气候无敏感性。然而，物候学在比平均温度较高的年份更早出现，这对大多数物种的种群增长有积极贡献。在低纬度地区，温度对物候的影响较弱，但对种群增长的直接负面影响更强，可能是因为这些种群较难通过可塑性追踪气候。温度介导的物候效应对种群增长的差异不能用纬度、世代时间、迁徙方式或饮食来解释。这表明，物种特征与种群对变暖的反应之间可能不存在简单的关系。相反，我们可能需要考虑捕捉种内变异的局部尺度预测变量，从而拥抱生态复杂性。

原文摘要（English）

Phenotypic responses to climate affect individual fitness, but the extent to which this translates into effects on population dynamics remains poorly understood. We assemble 213 time series on phenotypes and population sizes of wild vertebrates globally and match them with local climate data. Our meta-analysis shows that morphological traits are mostly climate insensitive. However, phenology is earlier in warmer-than-average years, which contributes positively to population growth in most species. At lower latitudes, temperature has weaker effects on phenology but stronger direct negative effects on population growth, likely because these populations are less capable of tracking climate via plasticity. Variation in the phenology-mediated effect of temperature on population growth cannot be explained by latitude, generation time, migratory mode, or diet. This suggests that simple relationships between species characteristics and population responses to warming may not occur in nature. Instead, we may need to embrace ecological complexity by considering local-scale predictors that capture intra-specific variation.

3. 图表

4. 引用

Radchuk V, Jones C V, McLean N, et al. Changes in phenology mediate vertebrate population responses to temperature globally[J]. Nature Communications, 2026, 17(1): 479. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-025-68172-8.

查看 BibTeX

@article{radchuk2026,
author = {Viktoriia Radchuk and Carys V. Jones and Nina McLean and Anne Charmantier and Céline Teplitsky and Ray Alisauskas and Sergio Ancona and Tycho Anker-Nilssen and Peter Arcese and Debora Arlt and Lise M. Aubry and Liam Bailey and Christophe Barbraud and Karl S. Berg and Dominique Berteaux and Daniel T. Blumstein and Sandra Bouwhuis and Ulrich Brose and Lyanne Brouwer and Paulo Catry and Guillaume Chero and Andre Chiaradia and Alexandre Courtiol and Francis Daunt and Karine Delord and F. Stephen Dobson and Hugh Drummond and Tapio Eeva and Dominique Fauteux and Gilles Gauthier and Meritxell Genovart and José P. Granadeiro and Jonas Hentati-Sundberg and Michael Harris and José Manuel Igual and Fredric Janzen and Katharine Keogan and Erkki Korpimäki and Stephanie Kramer-Schadt and Loeske E. B. Kruuk and Sue Lewis and Mark Mallory and Julien Martin and Manuel Massot and Erik Matthysen and Jean-Baptiste Mihoub and Anders Pape Møller and Chloé R. Nater and Mark Newell and Steffen Oppel and Daniel Oro and Santiago Ortega and Deseada Parejo and Tomas Pärt and Ana Payo-Payo and Josephine Pemberton and Richard A. Phillips and Neville Pillay and Jesús M. Avilés and Heiko G. Rödel and Ana Sanz-Aguilar and Claire Saraux and Holger Schielzeth and Carsten Schradin and Julia Schroeder and Ben C. Sheldon and Giacomo Tavecchia and Corey E. Tarwater and Vebjørn Veiberg and Vincent A. Viblanc and Dietrich von Holst and Stefan J. G. Vriend and Sarah Wanless and Nathaniel Wheelwright and Andrew G. Wood and Bernt-Erik Sæther and Stephanie Jenouvrier and Jean Clobert and Steven R. Beissinger and Marcel E. Visser and Thomas E. Reed and Martijn van de Pol},
title = {Changes in phenology mediate vertebrate population responses to temperature globally},
journal = {Nature Communications},
year = {2026},
volume = {17},
number = {1},
pages = {479},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-025-68172-8},
publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC},
}

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