即使在实施保护政策的情况下，欧洲常见的鸟类和蝴蝶物种的数量仍预计会下降

1. 信息

2. 摘要

In response to increasing human pressures on biodiversity, conservation targets have been set to reduce these pressures and halt biodiversity decline. However, consequences of these objectives on common species are rarely studied. We analyse the effect of a range of drivers related to climate, land use and land-use intensity on 265 common bird and 144 common butterfly species from more than 20,000 sites between 2000 and 2021 across 27 European countries. We use land use and land-use intensity scenarios produced previously using the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Nature Futures Framework and climate change scenarios to project biodiversity drivers in Europe up to 2050. We translate these driver changes into abundance variations for common bird and butterfly species and for multi-species indicators used to monitor common biodiversity status in Europe. The projected trends relatively improve, while still declining for birds, notably farmland species, under the scenarios meeting conservation objectives, with few effects on butterflies. No scenario shows a stop or a reversal in the average decline in abundance of bird and butterfly species. Our results therefore question the common biodiversity future under current conservation policies and highlight the need for other anticipatory frameworks not implicitly based on a growing need for natural resources.

3. 图表

4. 引用

@article{rigal2026,
  author = {Stanislas Rigal and Maxime Lenormand and Léa Tardieu and Hany Alonso and Ainārs Auniņš and Tristan R. M. Bakx and Michiel P. Boom and Mattia Brambilla and Lluís Brotons and Tomasz Chodkiewicz and Benoît Fontaine and Zdenek Faltynek Fric and Anna Gamero and Sergi Herrando and John Atle Kålås and Johannes Kamp and Petras Kurlavičius and Mikko Kuussaari and Aleksi Lehikoinen and Dirk Maes and Xavier Mestdagh and Martin Musche and Ingar Jostein Øien and Lars B. Pettersson and Jiří Reif and Johannes Rüdisser and Martina Šašić and Reto Schmucki and Josef Settele and Constanti Stefanescu and Bård Gunnar Stokke and Nicolas Strebel and Nicolas Titeux and Sven Trautmann and Chris Van Swaay and Sandra Luque},
  title = {Predicted decline in common bird and butterfly species even under conservation policy scenarios in Europe},
  journal = {Nature Ecology \& Evolution},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {10},
  number = {9},
  pages = {1694-1708},
  doi = {10.1038/s41559-026-03139-6},
  publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC},
}