到2085年，陆生脊椎动物将越来越多地暴露于多种极端事件中

1. 信息

2. 摘要

Understanding how species are exposed to different types of extreme events is an emerging priority to inform biodiversity conservation under climate change. Using climate impact projections and species range data, we predict changes in exposure to droughts, heatwaves, river floods and wildfires for 33,936 terrestrial vertebrate species and 794 ecoregions. By 2050, under a medium–high emission scenario (SSP3–7.0), on average 74% of the area within species’ current geographic ranges are projected to be exposed to heatwaves, 16% to wildfires, 8% to droughts and 3% to river floods. These trends include species-rich areas in the Amazon basin, Africa and Southeast Asia. By 2050, 22 ecoregions, primarily in mid-latitudes, are estimated to have at least 50% of their area exposed to two or more types of extreme events, increasing to 236 ecoregions by 2085 (SSP3–7.0). By 2085, 36% of the area within species’ ranges are projected to be exposed to multiple event types (SSP3–7.0). These findings highlight the need for further research into species’ sensitivity and adaptive capacity to extreme events, and for conservation strategies that address the impacts of multiple extreme events.

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4. 引用

@article{heinicke2026,
  author = {Stefanie Heinicke and Karim Zantout and Hjalmar S. Kühl and Christopher P. O. Reyer and Sandra Zimmermann and Maik Billing and Simon N. Gosling and Manolis Grillakis and Stijn Hantson and Akihiko Ito and Sian Kou-Giesbrecht and Aristeidis Koutroulis and Benedikt Mester and Hannes Müller Schmied and Sebastian Ostberg and Kedar Otta and Yadu Pokhrel and Katja Frieler},
  title = {Land vertebrates increasingly exposed to multiple extreme events by 2085},
  journal = {Nature Ecology \& Evolution},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {10},
  number = {5},
  pages = {854-863},
  doi = {10.1038/s41559-026-03050-0},
  publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC},
}