One Earth2026Article

利用综合转型情景解决气候-自然-公平多重危机中的科学难题

Solving science conundrums in the climate-nature-equity polycrisis with integrated transformative scenarios

Laura M. Pereira · Matthew Ford Gibson · Jesse F. Abrams · Elina Brutschin · Juan Camilo Cardenas · William W.L. Cheung · Joachim Claudet · Sarah E. Cornell · Vassilis Daioglou · América Paz Durán · Erik Gomez-Baggethun · Paula A. Harrison · Sophie Hebden · Justin A. Johnson · Jean-Baptiste Jouffray · Sylvia Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen · Patrick W. Keys · HyeJin Kim · Marcel T.J. Kok · Carolyn J. Lundquist · Timothy M. Lenton · Daniel Mason-D’Croz · Pamela McElwee · Claudia Munera-Roldan · Nebojsa Nakicenovic · Albert V. Norström · Maganizo K. Nyasulu · Garry D. Peterson · Patricia Pinho · Alexander Popp · Keywan Riahi · U. Rashid Sumaila · Arne Tobian · Ricarda Winkelmann · Nico Wunderling · Detlef van Vuuren · Joost Vervoort · Caroline Zimm

1. 信息

DOI10.1016/j.oneear.2026.101710

期刊One Earth

类型Article

发表2026-05

卷期页9(5): 101710

收录2026-10-09

被浏览…

关键词climate crisis biodiversity crisis polycrisis scenario planning integrated science just transition knowledge co-production interdisciplinary research agenda

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2. 摘要

Addressing the intertwined climate, biodiversity, and equity crises requires transformative societal change. Yet the scenario frameworks and models used to explore future pathways often reproduce existing institutions, governance systems, and social structures, limiting their ability to imagine more sustainable and just futures. A key gap is the lack of approaches that can identify and evaluate transformative actions while accounting for systemic inequities in implementation. Here, we argue that integrating climate and biodiversity knowledge across the natural sciences, social sciences, and humanities, together with stakeholders and diverse knowledge holders, can support the development of normative scenarios and models for just and sustainable Earth system futures. We outline a research agenda, highlight emerging examples of this shift, and identify the coalitions and institutional changes needed to advance it. More inclusive scenarios and modeling tools are essential for foregrounding equitable solution pathways and informing decisions about collective futures.

3. 图表

4. 引用

Pereira L M, Gibson M F, Abrams J F, et al. Solving science conundrums in the climate-nature-equity polycrisis with integrated transformative scenarios[J]. One Earth, 2026, 9(5): 101710. DOI: 10.1016/j.oneear.2026.101710.

查看 BibTeX

@article{pereira2026,
  author = {Laura M. Pereira and Matthew Ford Gibson and Jesse F. Abrams and Elina Brutschin and Juan Camilo Cardenas and William W.L. Cheung and Joachim Claudet and Sarah E. Cornell and Vassilis Daioglou and América Paz Durán and Erik Gomez-Baggethun and Paula A. Harrison and Sophie Hebden and Justin A. Johnson and Jean-Baptiste Jouffray and Sylvia Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen and Patrick W. Keys and HyeJin Kim and Marcel T.J. Kok and Carolyn J. Lundquist and Timothy M. Lenton and Daniel Mason-D’Croz and Pamela McElwee and Claudia Munera-Roldan and Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Albert V. Norström and Maganizo K. Nyasulu and Garry D. Peterson and Patricia Pinho and Alexander Popp and Keywan Riahi and U. Rashid Sumaila and Arne Tobian and Ricarda Winkelmann and Nico Wunderling and Detlef van Vuuren and Joost Vervoort and Caroline Zimm},
  title = {Solving science conundrums in the climate-nature-equity polycrisis with integrated transformative scenarios},
  journal = {One Earth},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {9},
  number = {5},
  pages = {101710},
  doi = {10.1016/j.oneear.2026.101710},
  publisher = {Elsevier BV},
}

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