Science2026Article

保护全球陆生脊椎动物物种免受未来海平面上升的影响

Safeguarding global terrestrial vertebrate species from future sea-level rise

Zhong-Wen Jiang · Heng-Bin Xiao · Jeffrey O. Hanson · Yiwen Zeng · David S. Wilcove · Mark Schuerch · Matthew L. Kirwan · Qin-Fang Yan · Yaping Chen · Liang Ma

1. 信息

DOI10.1126/science.aed5772

期刊Science

类型Article

发表2026-10-08 （online）

卷期页eaed5772

收录2026-10-14

被浏览…

关键词sea level rise terrestrial vertebrates refugia Shared Socioeconomic Pathways threatened species habitat loss birds mammals reptiles amphibians

2. 摘要

海平面上升威胁着陆地生物的多样性，但其对物种的空间和时间影响仍不清楚。通过将五个共享社会经济路径下的相对海平面上升预测数据与 34,120 种陆地脊椎动物的栖息地地图相结合，我们预测受海平面上升影响的物种数量将从 2050 年的 13,680 种增加到 2100 年的 15,324 种。其中，鸟类占 57-63%，哺乳动物占 47-52%，爬行动物占 28-36%，两栖动物占 20-24%。在东南亚地区，内陆淹没区域支持着大量物种的生存。根据 SSP5-8.5 方案，面临超过 10%栖息地被淹没的物种数量将从 2050 年的 18 种增加到 2100 年的 109 种，而爬行动物和那些已经受到威胁的物种在其中的比例更高。保护那些不受海平面上升影响的栖息地至关重要，但超过 96%的受威胁物种所在的栖息地位于保护区之外，因此迫切需要国际间的紧急行动。

原文摘要（English）

Sea-level rise (SLR) threatens terrestrial biodiversity, yet its spatiotemporal and species-specific impacts remain unclear. Integrating relative SLR projections across five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) with Area of Habitat (AOH) maps for 34,120 terrestrial vertebrate species, we project species exposed to SLR will increase from up to 13,680 in 2050 to 15,324 by 2100, including 57–63% of birds, 47–52% of mammals, 28–36% of reptiles, and 20–24% of amphibians. In Southeast Asia, inland inundation areas support high richness. Under SSP5-8.5, species facing >10% habitat inundation surges from 18 in 2050 to 109 by 2100, with reptiles and already threatened species overrepresented. Safeguarding SLR refugia, the non-inundated habitats for exposed species, is critical, yet over 96% lie outside protected areas, demanding early international action.

3. 图表

4. 引用

Jiang Z, Xiao H, Hanson J O, et al. Safeguarding global terrestrial vertebrate species from future sea-level rise[J]. Science, 2026, eaed5772. DOI: 10.1126/science.aed5772.

查看 BibTeX

@article{jiang2026,
  author = {Zhong-Wen Jiang and Heng-Bin Xiao and Jeffrey O. Hanson and Yiwen Zeng and David S. Wilcove and Mark Schuerch and Matthew L. Kirwan and Qin-Fang Yan and Yaping Chen and Liang Ma},
  title = {Safeguarding global terrestrial vertebrate species from future sea-level rise},
  journal = {Science},
  year = {2026},
  pages = {eaed5772},
  doi = {10.1126/science.aed5772},
  publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)},
}

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