干扰机制与气候变化共同导致欧洲植物分布范围普遍失衡

1. 信息

2. 摘要

Species distributions often fail to match climatically suitable areas, resulting in range disequilibrium. Although recent studies have focused on mismatches arising from lags in biotic responses to climate change (for example, extinction and colonization lags), disturbance processes may also determine whether species occupy otherwise climatically suitable areas, for example, by altering vegetation structure and light regimes. Here we assess climate-change and disturbance-driven disequilibrium for 3,047 vascular plant species across Europe using species distribution models and >1.1 million vegetation plots. Almost all species (99%) show disturbance-driven disequilibrium, revealing mismatches that are strongly structured along disturbance gradients, consistent with alternative vegetation states. We identified disequilibrium associated with recent climate change in 52% of species, with ranges best predicted by climates 10–18 years before sampling and most pronounced among closed-canopy species, probably reflecting under-canopy microclimatic buffering. These findings demonstrate that climate change and disturbance jointly shape widespread disequilibrium in European plant distributions, with disturbance regimes strongly structuring the realization of climatic suitability across contemporary landscapes. Accounting for both disturbance regimes and temporal lags in climate response is therefore essential for improving biodiversity forecasts and guiding conservation strategies.

3. 图表

4. 引用

@article{pang2026,
  author = {Sean E. H. Pang and Robert Buitenwerf and Oliver Baines and Svetlana Aćić and Markus Bernhardt-Römermann and Idoia Biurrun and Gianmaria Bonari and Hans Henrik Bruun and Chaeho Byun and Eduardo Chacón-Madrigal and Alessandro Chiarucci and Anh Tuan Dang-Le and Pieter De Frenne and Arildo Dias and Jiri Dolezal and Emmanuel Garbolino and Behlül Güler and Nate Hough-Snee and Jens Kattge and Jonathan Lenoir and Adam R. Martin and Sean T. Michaletz and Vanessa Minden and Akira S. Mori and Ülo Niinemets and Wolfgang Schmidt and Mária Šibíková and Grzegorz Swacha and Koenraad Van Meerbeek and Jens-Christian Svenning},
  title = {Disturbance regimes drive widespread plant range disequilibrium in Europe alongside climate change},
  journal = {Nature Ecology \& Evolution},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {10},
  number = {8},
  pages = {1475-1487},
  doi = {10.1038/s41559-026-03119-w},
  publisher = {Springer Science and Business Media LLC},
}