Science2026Article

气候变化将在21世纪内加剧欧洲的森林扰动

Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21st century

Marc Grünig · Werner Rammer · Cornelius Senf · Katharina Albrich · Frédéric André · Andrey L. D. Augustynczik · Martin Baumann · Friedrich J. Bohn · Meike Bouwman · Harald Bugmann · Alessio Collalti · Irina Cristal · Daniela Dalmonech · Francois De Coligny · Laura Dobor · Christina Dollinger · Josep Maria Espelta · David I. Forrester · Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo · José Ramón González-Olabarria · Ulrike Hiltner · Tomáš Hlásny · Juha Honkaniemi · Nica Huber · Mathieu Jonard · Anna Maria Jönsson · Georges Kunstler · Fredrik Lagergren · Marcus Lindner · Marco Mina · Christine Moos · Xavier Morin · Bart Muys · Gert-Jan Nabuurs · Mats Nieberg · Marco Patacca · Mikko Peltoniemi · Christopher P. O. Reyer · Mart-Jan Schelhaas · Ilié Storms · Dominik Thom · Maude Toïgo · Rupert Seidl

1. 信息

DOI10.1126/science.adx6329

期刊Science

类型Article

发表2026-03-05

卷期页391(6789): eadx6329

收录2026-10-04

被浏览…

关键词forest disturbance climate change impacts forest fires insect outbreaks storm damage tree mortality forest carbon storage forest demography young forest stands Europe

标签—

2. 摘要

野火、虫害和风暴会导致大量树木死亡。气候变化加剧了这些森林扰动，但其未来的强度和范围仍存在不确定性。本文利用基于深度学习的模拟框架，以100米分辨率模拟了欧洲未来森林扰动模式。结果表明，在气候变化持续加剧的情况下，21世纪森林扰动将持续增加，受扰动面积将比近期增加一倍以上。野火是驱动未来扰动变化的主要因素。扰动模式的改变导致幼林数量增加，从而显著改变了欧洲的森林人口结构。鉴于扰动对森林碳储存和森林生态系统栖息地价值的深远影响，应将其作为森林政策和管理的重点关注对象。

原文摘要（English）

Wildfires, insect outbreaks, and storms cause large pulses of tree mortality. Climate change amplifies these forest disturbances, yet their future magnitude and extent remain uncertain. Here, we simulated future forest disturbance regimes at 100-meter resolution across Europe using a deep learning–based simulation framework. Our results show that forest disturbances will continue to increase throughout the 21st century, with disturbed areas more than doubling relative to the recent past under an unabated continuation of climate change. Wildfires are the main agent driving future disturbance change. Changing disturbances result in an increase in young forests, substantially altering Europe’s forest demography. Because of their profound implications for forest carbon storage and the habitat value of forest ecosystems, disturbances should be a priority of forest policy and management.

3. 图表

4. 引用

Grünig M, Rammer W, Senf C, et al. Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21st century[J]. Science, 2026, 391(6789): eadx6329. DOI: 10.1126/science.adx6329.

查看 BibTeX

@article{grnig2026,
  author = {Marc Grünig and Werner Rammer and Cornelius Senf and Katharina Albrich and Frédéric André and Andrey L. D. Augustynczik and Martin Baumann and Friedrich J. Bohn and Meike Bouwman and Harald Bugmann and Alessio Collalti and Irina Cristal and Daniela Dalmonech and Francois De Coligny and Laura Dobor and Christina Dollinger and Josep Maria Espelta and David I. Forrester and Jordi Garcia-Gonzalo and José Ramón González-Olabarria and Ulrike Hiltner and Tomáš Hlásny and Juha Honkaniemi and Nica Huber and Mathieu Jonard and Anna Maria Jönsson and Georges Kunstler and Fredrik Lagergren and Marcus Lindner and Marco Mina and Christine Moos and Xavier Morin and Bart Muys and Gert-Jan Nabuurs and Mats Nieberg and Marco Patacca and Mikko Peltoniemi and Christopher P. O. Reyer and Mart-Jan Schelhaas and Ilié Storms and Dominik Thom and Maude Toïgo and Rupert Seidl},
  title = {Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21st century},
  journal = {Science},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {391},
  number = {6789},
  pages = {eadx6329},
  doi = {10.1126/science.adx6329},
  publisher = {American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)},
}

· END ·